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Practically Speaking

Kyle and her husband moved to Brookfield in 1986. She became active in local politics and started blogging in 2004. Her focus is primarily on local issues but often includes state and national topics, too. Kyle looks at things from the taxpayers' perspective in a creative, yet down to earth way, addressing them from a practical point of view.

Jimmy Carter was ahead 33% by this time in 1976

Elections, McCain 2008, Obama 2008

Yesterday I heard someone say that Jimmy Carter was ahead in the polls by 33% by mid-July. I checked it out and sure enough, it was true. His lead narrowed to just 2% by election day though.

Seeing as Obama isn't ahead of McCain by leaps and bounds, yet the media acts like he was already elected, I wondered how this election compared to other elections. (Although nothing about this election is typical!)

I found Gallup did a great job of analyzing the past presidential elections in, July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections:

In 9 of the past 15 U.S. presidential elections, the candidate who was leading in Gallup polling roughly four months before the election ultimately won the popular vote for president. However, narrowing the set of races to the nine that were competitive, the early polling proved prescient in only three of those.

With Barack Obama leading John McCain by no more than six percentage points in Gallup's early July polling, the 2008 race currently fits best into the "competitive" category. Given that assumption, Gallup's election trends from a comparable point in previous presidential election years offer no strong indication of whether Obama or McCain is headed for victory in November.

Kerry was ahead at this time in 2004, and pundits said it was the end of the Republicans. Election Day told another story. Check out the graphs and charts for past elections on the Gallup site.

With Iran testing 9 missiles yesterday and more overnight and gas prices rising (he says prices just went up too quickly), I cannot think Obama will hold the lead for long.

The more Obama goes off-script (remember the asthma breathalyser, ventilator stumbles), the more he flip-flops (I support the gun ban, dumping church / pastor, getting out of Iraq in 16 mo., funding his campaign, etc.) the more his poll numbers will be affected. The presidential debates should be interesting. 

Fairly Conservative showed "McCain pulling ahead in Missouri" by 2%* 5% yesterday and Obama losing ground to undecided in New Jersey. I would think the Obama erosion will hit other states too.

A lot can happen in 4 months. Iran's current volatility may just be the dose of reality voters need to make a concrete choice come November.....time will tell. 

*Correction 

 

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